As immigrants continue to flood into the West, an important question presents itself to inquisitive minds: what will occur when the ethnic cohesion of European and Commonwealth counties disappears? As demographics shift, ethnicity as a function of stability is an important and interesting topic for discussion.

Throughout history, nations have had racial or ethnic characteristics—expressed in different ways, but always there. While empires like the Romans, Ottomans, and Mongols included minorities in their cities, administrations, and armies, these empires weren’t multicultural in the way that we would conceptualize today.

The empires of old were multiethnic by necessity—the sheer scale guaranteed this—but ethnicity in the ruling classes and elite positions remained highly stratified. The Umayyad Caliphate, for example, encompassed many ethnicities and cultures, but the ruling class was always Arabic. Even ostensibly “cosmopolitan” empires relied on some degree of ethnic scaffolding. It was not the only factor of cohesion, but it often served as a backbone for trust, loyalty, and social organization.

Admittedly, ethnicity was not the only force that historically held nations together. Language, religion, institutions, customs, and shared values have always played critical roles. One could argue that a nation with robust assimilation around these non-racial components of culture could still achieve cohesion. If skin colour became as hair colour—an irrelevant feature in any assessment of character or status—a society might thrive.

However, this outcome appears increasingly unlikely in the contemporary West. And if there is no shared ethnic background to fall back on, what remains to hold nations together?

To be clear, this is not an argument for ethnic purity or for the deportation of non-White citizens. From a purely analytical standpoint, however, shared racial background is a commonality that has historically strengthened nations. A country in which citizens share at least some ethnic heritage will likely prove more stable and resilient than one in which there is no shared ethnic background at all. Ignoring this pattern carries risks.

Now, one could make the argument that ethnic nationalism is rational where it currently exists, but irrational in a society that is already multi-ethnic. In other words, a country like Poland would be wise to preserve its ethnic cohesion, while a call for ethnic nationalism in a country like Britain—now increasingly diverse—could set the nation on a path toward conflict and violence.

This leaves us with a dilemma. Should Western nations explicitly aim to maintain European majorities, or continue along a path of sustained immigration and increasing diversity? Among younger generations in Europe and the Commonwealth, support is growing for policies such as sharply reduced immigration, the remigration of all non-citizens, and bans on dual citizenship. And they are increasingly doing so on the basis of ethnic, not civic, nationalism. If this is the direction future politics take, it would be prudent to establish clear boundaries before such movements gain momentum.

A starting point is this: any effort to preserve the ethnic majority of European and Commonwealth countries—ending all immigration, deporting non-citizens, ending dual citizenship, etc—must be paired with robust legal protections and guarantees for minority populations already citizens of the West. Any push toward ethnic nationalism that doesn’t safeguard the rights of non-White citizens must be rejected by decent people. That is a road we do not want to tread. We know how quickly that will turn to disorder and ethnic violence.

Some will object to the conversation itself as racist, yet the realities it addresses are unfolding regardless. My fear is that we are slumbering into an ethnic awakening in Europe without any debate or analysis. And silence is not a strategy, nor is shouting about fascists and Nazis.

If we hope to navigate the future responsibly and intentionally, open discussion is unavoidable.

Let the debate begin.